Big drought continues east of our area. It was farther west into our area with up to Moderate Drought before Beryl. She took care of that, as did the derecho & the storms that followed.
Long-term shallow ground water data indicates serious deficits & the wells drying up Ohio to Maryland to Virginia in that major drought. Here, levels are mostly normal to just a bit below normal. Of big help was a very wet January & April (after dry November-December & February-March) & much wetter April. Now, May & June turned dry & droughty, but July was mostly normal to above normal rainfall-wise, ending Moderate Drought over the area.
As you move east & southeastward, the crop stress dramatically increases with the drought & heat in Ohio to Maryland & Virginia.
Highs today reached 78-85 with smoky haze & pale, hazy sky.
Smoke peaks in thickness Friday, then thins. Friday will have an especially pale, smoky sky with some smoke mixing to the ground. This will result in lessening air quality bringing watery eyes, scratchy throats & some breathing issues to sensitive individuals. It also likely cuts our highs by 2-3 degrees as the sun's heating rays are blocked by smoke.
Smoke may come back at times over the next two to three weeks though.
Otherwise, it is just a lot of nice weather ahead through mid-next week with some nice, crisp, cool nights.
The humidity will be held in-check until the end of next week with some high/mid clouds & some cumulus occurring with the sunshine at times.
Storm clusters should occur on the edge of the heat/cooler weather from Wyoming to Kansas to Arkansas through mid-next week.
There will likely be a hurricane nearing the Caribbean after August 15, but it is unclear whether it will now impact the U.S. It bears watching.
As the heat expands, some showers & storms are possible Friday. More showers & storms are possible Saturday night-Sunday (August 16-17).
Highs will run hotter & it will be muggy with dew points rising to the 70s.
It then tends to cool, then heats up before we heat up with time in September above normal.
So, cool contracts, heat, humid expands, then contracts & we cool a hair. We then heat up again with time in September with hot ridge expansion (compared to the normal temperature for mid-September):
Dry weather gives way to bout of wetter weather (August 16-21), then drier pattern dominates into September. No indication of any big tropical impacts here yet.
This summer has been fascinating. Everything was on-track for rapid La Nina development with Midwest heat & drought, derecho in July with some rainfall relief. It & then very, very active hurricane season in the Southeast U.S.
So, original forecast was wet April, drying May & June with flash drought & above normal temperatures, as well as early-season heat wave(s). That did occur. We peaked at Moderate Drought over part of the area & saw temperatures peak at 94-98 with heat indices 98-110.
Sudden changes occurred after Beryl with rumblings of sudden shut-down of La Nina to neutral in an extremely rapid fashion. The climate feedback was noted with hot, hot ridge shifting west, more rainfall in our area & temperatures coming down here. After such a hot May & June, our July temperature at the Purdue Airport was near normal at 0.6 of a degree below. Other parts of the area saw temperatures up to 1.3 degrees below normal. We had the derecho & peak heat indices to 96-112, but highs tended to peak at 90-97, not 99-104 as expected. We did get the Progressive Derecho in mid-July & some rainfall then, however. The drought is there, just in a rather odd place from northern Kentucky to Ohio to Pennsylvania to Maryland, West Virginia & Virginia & then vestiges of it in the Tennessee Valley. Debby's rainfall will make a nice dent in it over Virginia to Pennsylvania, however.
Original thoughts were hotter, drier August, but heat relief & more sustained rainfall relief in late August. Drier September with above normal temperatures punctuated by cool snap late month. October looked drier & warmer, then colder snap late month with freeze.
I still feel good about those September & October outlooks.
The Saharan dust, the lack of Atlantic development now latter July to August (other than Debby) & the near record number of tropical systems in the Eastern Pacific simultaneously look remarkably El Nino-like (4 systems at once....a first since 1974). The Equatorial Pacific has shifted to near/at weak El Nino. Our weather looks more El Nino-like here in early August. So, that point made, everything else points to very active season through September with Florida & East Coast as targets.
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